Technical Analysis of Keya: Part 2 on 31 Jan 2017

Technical Analysis of Keya: Part 2 on 31 Jan 2017 (after trading hours)

This is no buy/sell recommendation - just a trial to see if Technical Analysis (works to an extent) in Dhaka Stock Exchange.

This is a bit nostalgic as I evaluate my first post on Technical Analysis of a company – Keya published on 19 Nov 2016: http://imti77az.blogspot.com/2016/11/technical-analysis-of-keya-on-19-nov.html 

I think I tried to be too precise – TA not being an exact science, I need to be a bit flexible (with the use of numbers).

Suggested buy rate was around 10 and target was around 12.5-13. The crazy bull exceeded my expectation of “13” and went on to 16.8! I would give it pass marks – especially considering the profit it returned (around 70% return in 11 weeks).

Brave were those who held to the peak - I bailed out earlier :-[

Now let us try to project the next movement – there are two major scenarios:

(-) It falls back to low around 10

(+) After retracement on low volume, it makes the next bullish move . . . let us look at some details:

Keya’s first run was from 9.6 to 16.8. Considering Fibo retracements:

- 38% retracement would bring it down to 14 (where it tried to reverse today)

- 50% retracement would bring it down to 13.2 (it could also get support of the up-trend line shown in the chart – giving more technical strength to the pattern).

Then, a bullish move on increasing volume could take it around last high (around 17). Optimistically, another crazy move could take it into the mid-20's if it crosses 17 (as its PE is still low).

Hope you enjoyed the bullish run with this amateur!

Let us see what happens on the next run . . . 

Just be wary ... as the Index is in Correction (retracement) mode . . .
Best wishes as always . . .