Technical Analysis of Beximco on 21 Jan 2017
This is no buy/sell recommendation - just a trial to see if
Technical Analysis (works to an extent) in Dhaka Stock Exchange.
I don’t trade Beximco – let’s say it’s a trust issue.
I don’t know about the Fundamentals – really, I am not
interested in Beximco’s fundamentals.
The market is awash with rumors – as the saying goes, “Buy the
Rumor, Sell the News”. And I undertook this analysis for a namesake who is
addicted to Risk.
Please forgive me if the calculations come out wrong . . .
Weekly Chart: It seems to be a double bottom (~21, which is
Ideal entry price) and break-out of a Triangle – with re-test complete around
24. Pattern estimate is around 52.5
Daily Chart: It had an initial up move around 18 points. I would
estimate another 18 points rise from next Fibo. Assuming 38% Fibo at 32, the
target is roughly 50. Coincidentally, bounce from First Fibo level (34.5, which
is a rare occurrence itself) gives an estimate of 52.5 also.
52.5? Am I being
Fooled by Randomness?
*On a separate
note, Taleb’s Fooled by Randomness is a very good book but a bit difficult to
read. After reading it, you could try When Genius Failed which is fun to read.
It’s ironical that the names of these two important books came
to my mind when I was writing Beximco’s analysis, that on request of a friend!
Case of Yin and Yang!
I would set a stop loss 3 points below entry point.
It’s your risk. One thing I would like to say – jump out at the
slightest sign of danger even before the estimated target . . .
No doubt it looks inviting though . . .
Greed vs mistrust - moral dilemma . . .
Life is a trade-off . . . the choices we make . . . the roads we take (Robert Frost)
Edited on 22 Jan - Previously was a wrong chart of Fibo Extension - this is right one on Fibo Retracement
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