Technical
Analysis of Grameen2: Part 2 on 4 Feb 2017
This is no
buy/sell recommendation - just a trial to see if Technical Analysis (works to
an extent) in Dhaka Stock Exchange.
Before going into this analysis, I would like to evaluate the previous analysis
of Grameen2 made on 31 Dec 2016: http://imti77az.blogspot.com/2016/12/technical-analysis-of-grameen2-on-31.html
The predicted scenario was a buy around 12 and sell around 15-16. After that, Grameen2 actually moved from 12.3 to 15.4
If you had
taken a position around 12.4, then you could have sold around 15 getting around 20% return in a month.
In the
mean-time, Grameen2 updated its Q2 results: (Q2 Un-audited): EPU was Tk. 0.35
for October-December, 2016 as against Tk. 0.30 for October-December, 2015; EPU
was Tk. 0.54 for July-December, 2016 as against Tk. 0.44 (restated) for
July-December, 2015. NOCFPU was Tk. 0.47 for July- December, 2016 as against
Tk. 0.50 for July- December, 2015. NAV per unit at market price was Tk. 17.32
as of December 31, 2016 and Tk. 17.40 as of June 30, 2016. NAV per unit at cost
price was Tk. 10.58 as of December 31, 2016 and Tk. 11.22 as of June 30, 2016; Post
Date: 2017-01-29.
It’s NAV has
also increased from 1st Jan to 31st Jan 2017 – from 17.32
to 18.42. I think it bodes well for the future although it’s reported Q2 EPU was not as much as I had expected!
Now to the Technicals:
If we look at the Fibo retracements, it seems that 12 to 12.5 might offer a safer
entry zone for the next run – that could test recent high of 15.4 and even 16+
if the market gets excited again.
I would set a “loose”
stop loss at 11.5
Let us see what
happens in the next run . . .
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