Friday, December 16, 2016

Technical Analysis of BENGALWTL (Part Two)

Technical Analysis of BENGALWTL (Part Two)


This analysis is a continuation of the previous one:


In this article, I would like to again discuss a strategy of trading (Pyramiding) using the example of Bengalwtl.

I will skip the Fundamentals. 


One major news was the amalgamation (from DSE web site):

Trading Code: BENGALWTL: News: The Company has informed that the Honorable High Court Division of the Supreme Court of Bangladesh has passed the order in the Company matter no. 196 of 2016 approving the scheme of amalgamation of Bengal Petrochem and Synthetic Textiles Limited as Transferor Company with Bengal Windsor Thermoplastics Limited as Transferee Company for the purpose of Section 228 read with Section 229 of the Companies Act, 1994. Post Date: 2016-12-11


We need to see how the market prices it in.


Now to the Technicals - however, i will mainly discuss it from a strategy/tactic perspective using Bengalwtl as an example.


Last time I anticipated or guessed right that it would give a buying opportunity on 30 Nov 2016 (According to the Law of Averages, my next guess would probably go awry). The market gave an opportunity to enter around 42.


If one had entered earlier at a lower price, then better.


After that, it has broken 45 Resistance and also the wedge, which has bullish implications from a technical perspective.


Now it could re-test the Resistances, around 44-45, on low volume before making the next move, which I think will be upwards to test supply at 50-55 zone.


Assuming this scenario will play out, one could use pyramiding strategy.


That is adding to the previous buy (at 42), although I prefer to buy a lower quantity (total cost of lot less than or equal to previous entry). Thus, the trader can lower his average price and be ready to take profit if it rises. But if it falls, then the trader could exit at break-even.


Then again, there are two alternatives, at least. One is to close one's total position and look for other alternatives (or proactively, have one ready to switch).


The other is to off load the new buy (which could be made around 44-45) when Bengalwtl goes into the fifties, which would give around 10% profit. And keeping the (previous) low buy as long term investment.


One bird in the hand is worth two in the bushes...


Stop loss would be 44. That is close all positions if it goes below 44...


No charts this time - they were shared earlier . . . 


Best wishes...


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